PolyBot

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Traders

cashmusk

0xdf4a1557e64c8c4dfc305f45764c6c3487bb1b1b

Realised P&L
$601.19
Volume
$55.8k
Markets traded
194
Open portfolio
$1.1k

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded194
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration18.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9400.955$446.94+$7.02
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9570.974$194.70+$3.31
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? · No0.9930.996$99.55+$0.25
Iran leadership change by October 31? · No0.9850.984$98.40−$0.10
Will a 9.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31? · No0.9910.973$48.63−$0.92
Will Harry Kane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? · Yes0.9690.955$47.73−$0.72
Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9630.970$38.80+$0.28
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October? · No0.9670.952$38.06−$0.62
Trump meets with Putin by October 31? · No0.9900.985$37.43−$0.19
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? · No0.9700.974$30.18+$0.12
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi by October 31? · No0.9370.924$18.48−$0.26
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026? · No0.9930.982$14.74−$0.17

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-18 03:40Trump meets with Putin by October 31?BUY0.99$37.62
10-18 03:39Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?BUY0.993$99.30
10-18 03:39Iran leadership change by October 31?BUY0.985$98.50
10-18 03:21Will a 9.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?BUY0.991$49.55
10-18 03:20Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026?BUY0.993$14.90
10-18 03:19Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi by October 31?BUY0.937$18.74
10-18 03:16Will Harry Kane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?BUY0.969$48.45
10-18 03:09Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.95$95.00
10-02 05:25Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?BUY0.967$38.68
09-24 03:17Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.94$251.92
09-24 03:16Xi Jinping out before 2027?BUY0.956975$191.40
09-24 02:56Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.963$38.52
09-24 02:50IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?BUY0.97$30.06
09-24 02:49Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026BUY0.993$49.65
09-24 02:49Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026BUY0.993$49.65