cashmusk
0xdf4a1557e64c8c4dfc305f45764c6c3487bb1b1b
- Realised P&L
- $601.19
- Volume
- $55.8k
- Markets traded
- 194
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded194
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.940 | 0.955 | $446.94 | +$7.02 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.957 | 0.974 | $194.70 | +$3.31 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? · No | 0.993 | 0.996 | $99.55 | +$0.25 |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? · No | 0.985 | 0.984 | $98.40 | −$0.10 |
| Will a 9.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31? · No | 0.991 | 0.973 | $48.63 | −$0.92 |
| Will Harry Kane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? · Yes | 0.969 | 0.955 | $47.73 | −$0.72 |
| Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.963 | 0.970 | $38.80 | +$0.28 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October? · No | 0.967 | 0.952 | $38.06 | −$0.62 |
| Trump meets with Putin by October 31? · No | 0.990 | 0.985 | $37.43 | −$0.19 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? · No | 0.970 | 0.974 | $30.18 | +$0.12 |
| Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi by October 31? · No | 0.937 | 0.924 | $18.48 | −$0.26 |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.993 | 0.982 | $14.74 | −$0.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$660.00at 0.450Tigers vs. Mariners
- +$90.02at 0.100Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11?
- +$23.30at 0.558Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$18.74at 0.615Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3?
- +$18.60at 0.978Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 03:40 | Trump meets with Putin by October 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $37.62 |
| 10-18 03:39 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $99.30 |
| 10-18 03:39 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | BUY | 0.985 | $98.50 |
| 10-18 03:21 | Will a 9.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31? | BUY | 0.991 | $49.55 |
| 10-18 03:20 | Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $14.90 |
| 10-18 03:19 | Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi by October 31? | BUY | 0.937 | $18.74 |
| 10-18 03:16 | Will Harry Kane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | BUY | 0.969 | $48.45 |
| 10-18 03:09 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $95.00 |
| 10-02 05:25 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October? | BUY | 0.967 | $38.68 |
| 09-24 03:17 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.94 | $251.92 |
| 09-24 03:16 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.956975 | $191.40 |
| 09-24 02:56 | Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $38.52 |
| 09-24 02:50 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $30.06 |
| 09-24 02:49 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BUY | 0.993 | $49.65 |
| 09-24 02:49 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BUY | 0.993 | $49.65 |