Harluc
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
- Realised P&L
- $835.1k
- Volume
- $110.19M
- Markets traded
- 1,366
- Open portfolio
- $951.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,366
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration24.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$298.4kat 0.485US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$162.2kat 0.001MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$76.9kat 0.039Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- +$74.9kat 0.710US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$57.3kat 0.220Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 02:11 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.05 |
| 09-17 00:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | BUY | 0.07 | $70.00 |
| 09-16 23:57 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.961 | $371.73 |
| 09-16 23:30 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.992 | $2.3k |
| 09-16 23:29 | Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30? | BUY | 0.93 | $73.44 |
| 09-16 23:05 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | BUY | 0.76 | $132.24 |
| 09-16 23:04 | US recession by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $952.19 |
| 09-16 19:25 | Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by September 30? | BUY | 0.934 | $94.33 |
| 09-16 19:11 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $362.49 |
| 09-16 18:18 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7179 | $71.79 |
| 09-16 16:26 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $605.56 |
| 09-16 15:43 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.999 | $60.2k |
| 09-16 09:00 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.45 | $4.50 |
| 09-16 08:43 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $2.5k |
| 09-16 07:34 | US recession by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $9.24 |