twe2nty
0xdd5cc0a31573fc60a279577b80f00f27a32f0c2a
- Realised P&L
- $-13.2k
- Volume
- $5.73M
- Markets traded
- 392
- Open portfolio
- $367.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded392
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.8kat 0.524Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- +$8.6kat 0.660Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$8.2kat 0.902US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$7.3kat 0.249Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$6.4kat 0.977Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 05:06 | Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat? | BUY | 0.38 | $433.20 |
| 11-01 21:23 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $2.4k |
| 11-01 20:59 | Blue wave in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.6k |
| 11-01 20:55 | Blue tsunami in 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $322.07 |
| 11-01 20:51 | Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2417948194 | $105.29 |
| 11-01 20:39 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.1k |
| 11-01 20:35 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.51 | $1.7k |
| 11-01 20:32 | Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.4k |
| 11-01 20:31 | Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.41 | $225.50 |
| 11-01 20:30 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.9898636014 | $3.6k |
| 11-01 20:29 | Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.3k |
| 11-01 20:29 | Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $2.9k |
| 11-01 20:28 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $4.1k |
| 11-01 20:25 | Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $385.29 |
| 11-01 20:24 | Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat? | BUY | 0.65 | $74.28 |