0xdc908463be7dc70148ead137f76d9098b06ab86f
0xdc908463be7dc70148ead137f76d9098b06ab86f
- Realised P&L
- $-18.64
- Volume
- $498.83
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $2.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.905 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.700 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.021 | $0.08 | −$0.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.85at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$8.50at 0.320US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$7.63at 0.351Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$6.16at 0.400Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?
- +$5.19at 0.442Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 06:12 | Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 19:47 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 07:07 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 06:40 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 08:42 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 23:51 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 15:51 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 07:16 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 10:48 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 02:47 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 14:57 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 05:29 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699998807 | $4.00 |
| 09-20 07:32 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $4.00 |
| 09-19 22:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 09-17 07:57 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $4.00 |