chrispaul0825
0xdc6e2c915d31c2a2ad29d24d8db9cdc757134402
- Realised P&L
- $-3.68
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $91.75
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.238 | 0.240 | $40.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.550 | $17.60 | +$1.60 |
| Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.415 | $14.82 | −$0.18 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.181 | 0.100 | $11.06 | −$8.94 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.565 | $8.02 | −$0.50 |
| Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.00 |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.38at 0.418Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?
- +$16.19at 0.516Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?
- +$15.45at 0.396Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in October?
- +$10.32at 0.571Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?
- +$4.29at 0.430Will Together be in the next Israeli government?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:59 | Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31? | BUY | 0.4199999966 | $15.00 |
| 11-01 22:56 | Will Together be in the next Israeli government? | SELL | 0.6237634409 | $14.50 |
| 10-30 19:55 | Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $8.27 |
| 10-30 19:55 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31? | SELL | 0.0228081191 | $0.84 |
| 10-30 19:55 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0109384444 | $0.49 |
| 10-30 07:17 | Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027? | BUY | 0.5 | $16.00 |
| 10-30 03:05 | Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027? | BUY | 0.2199999966 | $13.00 |
| 10-30 02:58 | Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.2385321097 | $40.00 |
| 10-30 02:54 | Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1808662531 | $20.00 |
| 10-30 02:49 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $18.00 |
| 10-30 00:18 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October? | SELL | 0.9561762115 | $54.26 |
| 10-29 17:26 | Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $20.33 |
| 10-29 17:26 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | SELL | 0.61 | $18.30 |
| 10-28 20:04 | Will Together be in the next Israeli government? | BUY | 0.4299999991 | $10.00 |
| 10-28 20:00 | Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $9.71 |