0xda42b6299553e73bad6eea5455a3299e5ff42ed7
- Realised P&L
- $-16.13
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $47.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.45at 0.110Will Pope Leo XIV be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist?
- +$24.40at 0.170Will Donald Trump be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist?
- +$15.25at 0.207Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?
- +$6.11at 0.450U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
- +$4.76at 0.410Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 20:29 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 20:27 | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1339999798 | $5.00 |
| 07-11 20:26 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999681 | $5.00 |
| 07-11 20:22 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14? | BUY | 0.1099999521 | $2.00 |
| 07-11 20:14 | Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England? | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |
| 07-09 19:43 | Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0819999791 | $3.40 |
| 07-09 18:23 | Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco? | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |
| 07-05 19:40 | Will England win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.3799999731 | $4.81 |
| 06-21 17:57 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.0205049505 | $1.04 |
| 06-21 17:56 | Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.316 | $1.58 |
| 06-21 17:55 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 06-04 20:52 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.359999856 | $1.10 |
| 06-04 20:51 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 20:50 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 06-04 20:49 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.0379999641 | $1.00 |