PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xda42b6299553e73bad6eea5455a3299e5ff42ed7

Realised P&L
$-16.13
Volume
$3.1k
Markets traded
49
Open portfolio
$47.87

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded49
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration42.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample8 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14? · Yes0.1101.000$18.18+$16.18
Will England win on 2026-07-05? · Yes0.3801.000$12.66+$7.85
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? · Yes0.4401.000$5.68+$3.18
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.3601.000$3.06+$1.96
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1340.082$3.04$1.96
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? · Yes0.2800.137$2.44$2.56
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0360.045$1.20+$0.24
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.2700.145$1.07$0.93
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1200.065$0.54$0.46
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? · Yes0.0330.000$0.00$5.00
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00$5.00
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0120.000$0.00$5.00
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00$5.00
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? · Yes0.3160.000$0.00$1.58
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? · Yes0.0560.000$0.00$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-11 20:29Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1199998992$1.00
07-11 20:27Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1339999798$5.00
07-11 20:26Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?BUY0.2699999681$5.00
07-11 20:22Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?BUY0.1099999521$2.00
07-11 20:14Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?BUY0.1199999808$5.00
07-09 19:43Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0819999791$3.40
07-09 18:23Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?BUY0.0699999874$5.00
07-05 19:40Will England win on 2026-07-05?BUY0.3799999731$4.81
06-21 17:57Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026?BUY0.0205049505$1.04
06-21 17:56Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?BUY0.316$1.58
06-21 17:55Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?BUY0.2799999048$2.00
06-04 20:52Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.359999856$1.10
06-04 20:51GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?BUY0.2599998648$1.00
06-04 20:50Iran leadership change by December 31?BUY0.2699999163$2.00
06-04 20:49Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.0379999641$1.00