marvin-abc
0xd9606a847d026c99c0162df8e11288471171ed40
- Realised P&L
- $56.92
- Volume
- $25.7k
- Markets traded
- 359
- Open portfolio
- $48.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded359
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.28at 0.593Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$43.10at 0.044Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?
- +$20.51at 0.840Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November?
- +$18.39at 0.830Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
- +$12.22at 0.097Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 03:32 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.06 | $0.60 |
| 09-16 03:31 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 09-11 01:35 | Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.016 | $0.63 |
| 09-09 01:05 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 03:41 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 01:13 | Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | BUY | 0.2599999646 | $5.00 |
| 09-05 03:05 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.135 | $2.70 |
| 09-03 03:31 | Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | SELL | 0.35 | $17.17 |
| 09-03 03:28 | Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%? | SELL | 0.13 | $6.72 |
| 09-03 01:11 | Will DeepSeek have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.14 |
| 09-03 01:10 | Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.011 | $0.33 |
| 09-02 06:47 | Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 09-02 06:45 | Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%? | SELL | 0.19 | $9.82 |
| 09-02 05:34 | Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | BUY | 0.2299999825 | $8.00 |
| 09-02 05:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.3499998775 | $1.00 |