0x5A51849c4CB5C33eefFf4EcC91d987Cfc72489AB-1730859984860
0xd8d9cfbcedf7cfec07b17b34ad7eeb1b6ccf44c7
- Realised P&L
- $-143.58
- Volume
- $5.6k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $632.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.941 | $470.25 | +$5.25 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.650 | 0.705 | $140.99 | +$11.00 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.275 | $13.75 | −$4.25 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.031 | $7.75 | +$0.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$66.34at 0.763LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage
- +$57.00at 0.715Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
- +$18.13at 0.299Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
- +$7.49at 0.850Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 5, 2026?
- +$6.89at 0.902GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 08:45 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.2999955 | $60.00 |
| 10-29 08:45 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.116649434 | $61.82 |
| 10-27 19:54 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $5.40 |
| 10-23 17:25 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.3505730887 | $100.00 |
| 10-21 15:00 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.78 | $23.40 |
| 10-21 10:17 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $24.00 |
| 09-04 18:47 | Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.1021763357 | $5.79 |
| 09-04 07:23 | Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.845 | $42.25 |
| 09-04 01:53 | Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7053179565 | $40.00 |
| 09-04 01:53 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 11, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $20.64 |
| 09-04 01:53 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.929 | $69.17 |
| 09-02 16:34 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $20.00 |
| 09-02 16:34 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999997 | $70.00 |
| 09-02 16:33 | Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $51.92 |
| 09-02 16:33 | Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $33.56 |