PolyBot

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Traders

joennis

0xd85da6e47410324e32cc12fcc86e5e44a2c63700

Realised P&L
$-571.62
Volume
$30.3k
Markets traded
170
Open portfolio
$3.0k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded170
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration75.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration37.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9400.935$1.1k$5.86
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8170.835$838.20+$17.76
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No0.9460.945$391.48$0.56
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · No0.8860.935$159.53+$8.38
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.8130.840$75.07+$2.36
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · Yes0.7660.815$71.92+$4.34
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.8160.834$40.17+$0.88
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? · No0.9300.930$37.07+$0.00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · No0.9300.935$34.66+$0.19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.5470.175$31.68$67.44
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? · No0.4980.730$30.39+$9.64
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? · No0.8890.935$21.42+$1.06
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? · No0.9300.755$16.61$3.85
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3220.105$15.19$31.43
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · No0.8940.915$14.84+$0.34

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 23:31Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?SELL0.75$3.75
09-16 20:14Iran leadership change by December 31?BUY0.86$5.16
09-16 14:22Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?SELL0.863$4.31
09-16 14:05Iran leadership change by December 31?SELL0.85$5.95
09-16 14:05Iran leadership change by December 31?SELL0.85$5.95
09-16 13:48Iran leadership change by December 31?SELL0.85$16.15
09-15 18:28Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.95$49.40
09-14 11:01Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?SELL0.862$4.31
09-13 05:44Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.95$11.40
09-09 03:41Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.96$12.48
09-07 23:59Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.96$22.08
09-05 14:56US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?SELL0.982$6.87
09-05 13:46US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?BUY0.978$6.85
09-04 13:57Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.849$16.13
09-04 07:38Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?SELL0.831$57.34