RobClive
0xd8370134e2f1e4574177cc8f3983ab5ab873e931
- Realised P&L
- $-9.1k
- Volume
- $145.4k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.282 | 0.165 | $2.4k | −$1.7k |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.194 | 0.050 | $837.27 | −$2.4k |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · Yes | 0.252 | 0.185 | $330.35 | −$119.65 |
| Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.125 | $292.03 | −$157.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$536.58at 0.217US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
- +$398.79at 0.330US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
- +$162.50at 0.487 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
- +$147.90at 0.268Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
- +$133.23at 0.158Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 05:32 | Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.15901 | $1.59 |
| 07-25 05:50 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2899999998 | $1.0k |
| 06-13 07:43 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999998 | $500.00 |
| 06-13 07:42 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BUY | 0.284561527 | $109.88 |
| 06-13 07:40 | Iran nuclear test before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $159.93 |
| 06-13 07:40 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SELL | 0.0820568172 | $309.51 |
| 06-13 07:40 | Blue wave in 2026? | SELL | 0.2414873816 | $144.01 |
| 06-10 05:37 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? | BUY | 0.0348492054 | $77.42 |
| 06-10 05:28 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.0384909055 | $85.20 |
| 06-02 04:54 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999908 | $14.85 |
| 05-31 04:33 | Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | SELL | 0.05 | $14.42 |
| 05-08 06:24 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2099999984 | $85.00 |
| 05-07 04:04 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | BUY | 0.0411138723 | $100.00 |
| 05-07 04:03 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | BUY | 0.0599999995 | $100.00 |
| 05-07 04:03 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | BUY | 0.1279070558 | $100.00 |