6835437133
0xd7cc93a4cafe4b556f4aee3907d82f0bab685bea
- Realised P&L
- $-124.54
- Volume
- $6.2k
- Markets traded
- 781
- Open portfolio
- $39.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded781
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · No | 0.447 | 0.480 | $26.86 | +$1.86 |
| Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.037 | $10.78 | −$1.67 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 18? · Up | 0.750 | 0.475 | $0.63 | −$0.37 |
| Will Patrik Stenvard be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gävleborg? · Yes | 0.658 | 0.117 | $0.53 | −$2.47 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.165 | $0.33 | −$0.67 |
| Will United Stables hit $3B in 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.145 | $0.29 | −$0.71 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19? · Yes | 0.343 | 0.004 | $0.23 | −$19.77 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.029 | $0.03 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.81at 0.220Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$27.61at 0.070Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
- +$10.41at 0.099Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$9.39at 0.516Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
- +$8.53at 0.612Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 05:28 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 18? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 06:14 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 17? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 05:16 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 16? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 12:44 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 15? | BUY | 0.8589998978 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 05:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 05:16 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 14? | SELL | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 09-13 05:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 05:52 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19? | BUY | 0.3429691311 | $20.00 |
| 09-11 05:46 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 11? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 01:36 | Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | SELL | 0.53 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 05:49 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.8099999352 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 02:32 | Will Patrik Stenvard be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gävleborg? | BUY | 0.6579999303 | $3.00 |
| 09-09 09:00 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 9? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 06:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET | BUY | 0.54 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 13:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $1.00 |