6835437133
0xd7cc93a4cafe4b556f4aee3907d82f0bab685bea
- Realised P&L
- $-62.23
- Volume
- $4.9k
- Markets traded
- 470
- Open portfolio
- $6.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded470
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.088 | $5.20 | −$5.29 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.280 | $0.56 | −$0.44 |
| Will United Stables hit $3B in 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.140 | $0.28 | −$0.72 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.035 | $0.04 | −$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.81at 0.220Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$27.68at 0.067Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
- +$10.41at 0.099Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$5.60at 0.630US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?
- +$5.49at 0.758US government shutdown Saturday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 04:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 04:36 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3? | SELL | 0.95 | $1.79 |
| 08-02 05:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 05:27 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 06:13 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July? | BUY | 0.6 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 05:16 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 31? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 03:17 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 30? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 06:04 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 29? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 07-28 07:25 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28? | BUY | 0.3599999376 | $3.00 |
| 07-27 05:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $3.00 |
| 07-26 04:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 07-25 14:08 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY | 0.2889998457 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 10:24 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.744999838 | $4.00 |
| 07-25 05:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.94 | $4.70 |
| 07-25 05:41 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 27? | BUY | 0.5399999784 | $2.00 |