Red-bluedegen
0xd7ba0e06a755a33a5676e9d20a69c7e439b176ca
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $21.8k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $39.39
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.075 | $37.47 | −$62.46 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.003 | $0.99 | −$19.01 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.135 | 0.003 | $0.93 | −$49.07 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? · No | 0.219 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.06 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.146 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$76.70 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-19.51at 0.029Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$-64.31at 0.047Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$-90.00at 0.126Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$-122.76at 0.344Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$-168.01at 0.175Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-15 09:34 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $99.93 |
| 04-15 09:33 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.0899999974 | $30.00 |
| 03-25 10:14 | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | BUY | 0.2199999937 | $20.11 |
| 03-25 10:14 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.2199999936 | $20.00 |
| 03-25 10:13 | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | BUY | 0.216071417 | $11.00 |
| 03-25 10:06 | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.089999998 | $40.00 |
| 03-24 16:15 | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | BUY | 0.2199999936 | $20.00 |
| 03-24 16:14 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 03-19 16:06 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0604741171 | $20.00 |
| 03-19 16:05 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1345686182 | $50.00 |
| 01-09 14:39 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3437428484 | $122.76 |
| 01-09 14:38 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0736528153 | $122.02 |
| 12-17 09:37 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999972 | $40.00 |
| 12-17 09:37 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.0300606043 | $16.00 |
| 12-12 11:29 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999976 | $50.03 |