0xD62840CF26Fab216a46C5c9e9920487098e243c1-1761619024616
0xd62840cf26fab216a46c5c9e9920487098e243c1
- Realised P&L
- $-53.1k
- Volume
- $1.84M
- Markets traded
- 107
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded107
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.169 | 0.026 | $1.6k | −$8.4k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.436 | 0.065 | $300.16 | −$1.7k |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.033 | $2.32 | −$4.82 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.011 | $0.05 | −$0.81 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$403.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.1kat 0.726US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
- +$11.7kat 0.369US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$10.7kat 0.640Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$9.8kat 0.670Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$6.2kat 0.671US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-06 05:07 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.957 | $2.3k |
| 04-06 05:06 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.85 | $2.4k |
| 03-20 01:17 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | SELL | 0.84 | $840.00 |
| 03-16 02:24 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.29 | $1.9k |
| 03-14 04:46 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $438.62 |
| 03-04 02:15 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | SELL | 0.969 | $2.4k |
| 02-28 13:06 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | BUY | 0.1379515058 | $44.66 |
| 02-28 13:02 | Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.987 | $2.2k |
| 02-28 13:00 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.9424863973 | $1.9k |
| 02-28 10:37 | Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.0043723707 | $69.65 |
| 02-28 10:36 | Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.004 | $100.00 |
| 02-28 10:28 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | BUY | 0.0708423366 | $15.47 |
| 02-28 10:08 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.27 | $1.5k |
| 02-28 08:36 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1930038495 | $835.28 |
| 02-28 08:31 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.5096637133 | $2.3k |