bittersahu
0xd5f92d441c9d0a5c91ceb5bdef263a874005308f
- Realised P&L
- $122.96
- Volume
- $30.7k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $199.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.945 | $94.50 | +$8.50 |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.033 | $73.72 | +$32.96 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.065 | $26.00 | −$38.00 |
| Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.005 | $5.24 | +$1.14 |
| Will Derik Queen win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$101.35at 0.110Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
- +$80.05at 0.306Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
- +$19.60at 0.630U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$17.51at 0.831Will Jayson Tatum play a game this season?
- +$17.50at 0.560Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 01:49 | Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.0045313964 | $1.45 |
| 07-22 04:10 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.019 | $22.27 |
| 07-08 14:42 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.011 | $22.00 |
| 04-27 12:43 | Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | SELL | 0.811 | $15.45 |
| 04-03 22:01 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.73 |
| 04-03 22:01 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.002 | $2.44 |
| 04-03 03:16 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.024 | $8.43 |
| 04-02 21:20 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY | 0.041 | $1.64 |
| 04-02 21:20 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY | 0.0409473187 | $92.37 |
| 03-22 01:42 | Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | BUY | 0.31 | $9.30 |
| 03-22 01:42 | Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | BUY | 0.3049 | $30.49 |
| 03-22 01:41 | Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | SELL | 0.7036188248 | $27.06 |
| 03-06 23:47 | Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.64 | $16.00 |
| 03-06 13:26 | Will Jayson Tatum play a game this season? | SELL | 0.998 | $92.81 |
| 03-05 20:49 | Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | SELL | 0.583 | $34.40 |