mypension
0xd5bb4a1f8dca67de64e00324c723dee90983d51a
- Realised P&L
- $-4.8k
- Volume
- $57.3k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $149.43
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration73.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.875 | $99.43 | −$0.57 |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during September Press Conference? · No | 0.750 | 0.850 | $22.67 | +$2.67 |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.214 | 0.194 | $18.13 | −$1.87 |
| Will Warsh say "Scenario" during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.460 | $9.20 | −$0.80 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · No | 0.183 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.440Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$183.05at 0.844Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?
- +$108.62at 0.580Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$80.25at 0.655Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$53.64at 0.801Epstein client list released by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 17:31 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8799999996 | $100.00 |
| 09-15 16:58 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.2139999998 | $20.00 |
| 09-15 14:07 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.76 | $580.24 |
| 09-15 13:45 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.75 | $20.00 |
| 09-15 13:45 | Will Warsh say "Scenario" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 06-29 10:30 | Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? | SELL | 0.05 | $6.67 |
| 06-24 14:45 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6548910634 | $500.00 |
| 06-24 11:34 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.5799999998 | $150.00 |
| 06-24 08:49 | Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? | BUY | 0.75 | $100.00 |
| 02-28 20:52 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.0835052498 | $12.00 |
| 02-28 20:47 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.0650675238 | $1000.00 |
| 02-28 20:46 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.6968867554 | $1.0k |
| 02-28 20:45 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.056999999 | $53.00 |
| 02-28 16:57 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.0k |
| 02-28 15:59 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2599999998 | $1000.00 |