0xd4edb89ab1e2971679b84872bbb4035813f5c43d
0xd4edb89ab1e2971679b84872bbb4035813f5c43d
- Realised P&L
- $739.82
- Volume
- $6.7k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.957 | 0.944 | $295.83 | −$4.17 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.789 | 0.745 | $188.90 | −$11.10 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.769 | 0.930 | $178.90 | +$30.90 |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.529 | 0.580 | $109.65 | +$9.65 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes | 0.901 | 0.983 | $109.05 | +$9.05 |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.882 | 0.885 | $100.35 | +$0.35 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.660 | 0.635 | $91.40 | −$3.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$246.61at 0.702Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$125.89at 0.833Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$110.17at 0.810Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$81.74at 0.808Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$38.37at 0.888No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 07:37 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6599999997 | $95.00 |
| 09-22 11:15 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $48.00 |
| 09-22 11:14 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.7887848768 | $200.00 |
| 09-22 10:55 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8819206263 | $100.00 |
| 09-22 10:54 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9568069957 | $300.00 |
| 09-09 04:47 | Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999997 | $100.00 |
| 09-09 04:45 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.5289421151 | $100.00 |
| 09-09 04:44 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.9009909838 | $100.00 |
| 09-09 04:43 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.7192814373 | $100.00 |
| 08-18 10:40 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.975 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 06:51 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.3099999836 | $10.00 |
| 08-04 15:04 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.8231686587 | $620.81 |
| 07-11 06:50 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.69 | $571.02 |
| 06-03 18:41 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $464.84 |
| 05-02 23:13 | Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.9299999999 | $437.38 |