Celestibus
0xd4b1df996eeb35076735d8b67652c7e6b4f89440
- Realised P&L
- $-286.50
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $23.79
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-23.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- ClearOpen concentration37.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? · Yes | 0.117 | 0.105 | $8.94 | −$1.06 |
| Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2028? · Yes | 0.228 | 0.190 | $8.33 | −$1.67 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.235 | 0.160 | $3.39 | −$1.61 |
| Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.022 | $1.73 | −$8.27 |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.005 | $1.39 | −$3.61 |
| Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? · Yes | 0.404 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.383 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$208.71 |
| Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.86 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.72 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 09:44 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.1174168203 | $10.00 |
| 08-12 09:41 | Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2028? | BUY | 0.2280701622 | $10.00 |
| 08-12 09:40 | Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.1299999902 | $10.00 |
| 06-19 08:44 | Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? | BUY | 0.369999981 | $11.86 |
| 06-15 08:20 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.2349999723 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 08:19 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0179999965 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 08:13 | Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? | BUY | 0.4043079924 | $25.00 |
| 06-15 07:51 | GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999924 | $24.72 |
| 11-05 10:56 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.3739999986 | $104.21 |
| 11-05 08:30 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.392999999 | $104.50 |