choclopolis
0xd4495013cbc99463aff64617da94c76b71a5450f
- Realised P&L
- $2.7k
- Volume
- $661.2k
- Markets traded
- 422
- Open portfolio
- $12.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded422
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration4.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.603Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.0kat 0.498Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$623.01at 0.359Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
- +$606.50at 0.672Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$575.10at 0.447Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:25 | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $65.00 |
| 11-01 21:56 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $65.00 |
| 11-01 20:12 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $185.00 |
| 11-01 19:11 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $180.00 |
| 10-31 11:20 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $77.50 |
| 10-31 00:47 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $137.50 |
| 10-30 20:46 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $82.50 |
| 10-30 16:13 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $112.50 |
| 10-30 15:33 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $175.00 |
| 10-30 13:22 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $115.00 |
| 10-30 05:40 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.69 | $345.00 |
| 10-29 20:50 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.67 | $335.00 |
| 10-29 20:45 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.68 | $340.00 |
| 10-29 15:17 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $130.00 |
| 10-29 02:48 | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $175.00 |