zine13
0xd43fc4ecfaf5a3d75d79c4d046d2dced9e9ef1fc
- Realised P&L
- $-4.8k
- Volume
- $1.33M
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $21.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.991 | 0.999 | $18.0k | +$127.53 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.993 | 0.992 | $3.0k | −$4.54 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.705 | 0.835 | $334.00 | +$52.00 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · No | 0.730 | 0.675 | $135.00 | −$11.00 |
| Trump out as President by September 30? · No | 0.990 | 0.994 | $128.85 | +$0.50 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.588 | 0.765 | $46.91 | +$10.85 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.925 | $39.70 | +$5.37 |
| Will no one dissent the September Fed decision? · Yes | 0.095 | 0.375 | $15.00 | +$11.20 |
| Will one person dissent the September Fed decision? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.240 | $4.80 | +$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.9kat 0.750Will Trump dance today?
- +$3.2kat 0.769Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
- +$810.77at 0.991US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$777.70at 0.700Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$450.63at 0.930Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 06:57 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.001 | $7.78 |
| 08-13 19:02 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.8687513302 | $1.5k |
| 08-13 18:52 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | SELL | 0.63 | $283.81 |
| 08-13 18:48 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | SELL | 0.6 | $157.30 |
| 08-13 18:34 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.45 | $68.79 |
| 08-13 18:32 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.4598749517 | $178.36 |
| 08-13 18:30 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $497.50 |
| 08-13 18:30 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 08-13 18:26 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.4872033187 | $104.52 |
| 08-13 18:24 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.51 | $102.00 |
| 08-13 11:37 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.2k |
| 08-01 00:14 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $23.2k |
| 07-27 09:38 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.81 |
| 07-26 20:18 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.1k |
| 07-18 10:10 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $6.0k |