sdiff123
0xd352f30eed085d974d01430fc919b1702acd4ad6
- Realised P&L
- $-32.1k
- Volume
- $18.93M
- Markets traded
- 689
- Open portfolio
- $23.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded689
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.2kat 0.118Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$15.3kat 0.029Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$12.5kat 0.334Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
- +$12.0kat 0.563Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
- +$9.4kat 0.438Will 风无向 Web3Feng win the Synthetix trading competition?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 06:06 | Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.969949522 | $19.4k |
| 09-20 17:46 | Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.6992967967 | $1.5k |
| 09-19 13:59 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.47 | $424.33 |
| 09-18 21:40 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? | BUY | 0.6123809524 | $128.60 |
| 09-11 19:32 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.81 | $5.4k |
| 09-10 09:06 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.76 | $243.85 |
| 09-08 19:34 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.53 | $598.20 |
| 09-06 19:03 | Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.05 | $2.01 |
| 09-06 19:02 | Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.25 |
| 09-06 18:53 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.03 | $176.28 |
| 09-06 18:29 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.11 | $22.77 |
| 09-06 18:15 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.70 |
| 09-06 18:14 | Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.0k |
| 09-06 18:11 | Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.98 | $1.5k |
| 09-06 18:11 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.09 | $9.00 |