papalau
0xd302d2ded251ee53d036152a9c697e5d9136b782
- Realised P&L
- $40.05
- Volume
- $12.6k
- Markets traded
- 727
- Open portfolio
- $133.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded727
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.63at 0.795Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$14.68at 0.854Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$8.70at 0.130Will Bitcoin dip to $108k in October?
- +$7.90at 0.210Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 23?
- +$6.90at 0.310Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 16:31 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 09-19 16:30 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 09-19 16:30 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 20? | BUY | 0.9988 | $49.94 |
| 09-19 16:29 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 20? | BUY | 0.997 | $9.97 |
| 09-19 16:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 20? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.98 |
| 09-19 16:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 09-18 16:23 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on September 19? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.98 |
| 09-18 16:22 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 09-18 16:22 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 09-18 16:22 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on September 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 09-18 16:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 09-18 16:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 19? | BUY | 0.996 | $9.96 |
| 09-18 16:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 19? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.98 |
| 09-17 16:24 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 09-17 16:24 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.99 |