PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

papalau

0xd302d2ded251ee53d036152a9c697e5d9136b782

Realised P&L
$40.05
Volume
$12.6k
Markets traded
727
Open portfolio
$133.56

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded727
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration14.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration37.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 20? · Yes0.9990.999$49.92$0.01
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on September 20? · No0.9991.000$9.99+$0.01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 20? · No0.9981.000$9.99+$0.01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 20? · Yes0.9990.999$9.98$0.01
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 20? · Yes0.9990.998$9.97$0.01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No0.9680.996$9.89+$0.27
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 20? · Yes0.9970.988$9.88$0.09
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No0.9820.982$9.48$0.00
Will Matt Damon be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes0.8800.913$9.18+$0.33
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.1700.045$4.55$12.45
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes0.2700.059$0.59$2.10
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1000.011$0.12$0.89

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-19 16:31Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on September 20?BUY0.999$9.99
09-19 16:30Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 20?BUY0.999$9.99
09-19 16:30Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 20?BUY0.9988$49.94
09-19 16:29Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 20?BUY0.997$9.97
09-19 16:28Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 20?BUY0.998$9.98
09-19 16:28Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 20?BUY0.999$9.99
09-18 16:23Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on September 19?BUY0.998$9.98
09-18 16:22Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 19?BUY0.999$9.99
09-18 16:22Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 19?BUY0.999$9.99
09-18 16:22Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on September 19?BUY0.999$9.99
09-18 16:21Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 19?BUY0.999$9.99
09-18 16:21Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 19?BUY0.996$9.96
09-18 16:20Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 19?BUY0.998$9.98
09-17 16:24Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 18?BUY0.999$9.99
09-17 16:24Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 18?BUY0.999$9.99