PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xD2cba0c6464F96d2567eCC81D5F708d9670e7729-1776513816323

0xd2cba0c6464f96d2567ecc81d5f708d9670e7729

Realised P&L
$-573.99
Volume
$26.8k
Markets traded
56
Open portfolio
$965.14

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded56
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample45 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.2%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration62.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No0.7600.915$601.73+$101.73
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.4300.595$138.37+$38.37
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy? · Yes0.5300.510$96.23$3.77
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.5700.775$67.99+$17.98
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? · Yes0.0460.019$41.15$57.09
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.1500.065$8.67$11.33
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? · Yes0.8710.034$7.69$192.31
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.0530.004$3.31$46.69
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? · No0.1390.000$0.00$50.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No0.8600.000$0.00$430.55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No0.9450.000$0.00$577.51

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-03 08:26Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?SELL0.1218841098$55.91
06-30 06:16Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?SELL0.928122133$32.37
06-30 06:15OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?SELL0.7657603687$53.17
06-30 05:54Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?BUY0.5699999967$50.00
06-30 05:52Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?SELL0.993$105.64
06-30 05:51Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?SELL0.9710440137$159.29
06-27 23:11Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL0.1436784947$119.73
06-26 07:18Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? BUY0.0502217801$78.24
06-26 07:18OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?BUY0.7199999965$50.00
06-26 07:16Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?BUY0.8599999989$30.00
06-26 07:16Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?BUY0.5299999983$100.00
06-26 07:15AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?BUY0.8707354511$200.00
06-26 07:15AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?BUY0.9446419904$300.00
06-26 07:14Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? BUY0.0362181054$20.00
06-26 07:14Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?BUY0.9599999965$200.00