0xD2cba0c6464F96d2567eCC81D5F708d9670e7729-1776513816323
0xd2cba0c6464f96d2567ecc81d5f708d9670e7729
- Realised P&L
- $-573.99
- Volume
- $26.8k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $965.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.915 | $601.73 | +$101.73 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.430 | 0.595 | $138.37 | +$38.37 |
| Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.510 | $96.23 | −$3.77 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.570 | 0.775 | $67.99 | +$17.98 |
| Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.019 | $41.15 | −$57.09 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.065 | $8.67 | −$11.33 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? · Yes | 0.871 | 0.034 | $7.69 | −$192.31 |
| Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.004 | $3.31 | −$46.69 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? · No | 0.139 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$430.55 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.945 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$577.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$93.41at 0.689Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$68.18at 0.880Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
- +$51.37at 0.747 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$37.13at 0.909Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
- +$34.58at 0.701Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 08:26 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.1218841098 | $55.91 |
| 06-30 06:16 | Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? | SELL | 0.928122133 | $32.37 |
| 06-30 06:15 | OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.7657603687 | $53.17 |
| 06-30 05:54 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5699999967 | $50.00 |
| 06-30 05:52 | Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? | SELL | 0.993 | $105.64 |
| 06-30 05:51 | Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? | SELL | 0.9710440137 | $159.29 |
| 06-27 23:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.1436784947 | $119.73 |
| 06-26 07:18 | Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? | BUY | 0.0502217801 | $78.24 |
| 06-26 07:18 | OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.7199999965 | $50.00 |
| 06-26 07:16 | Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? | BUY | 0.8599999989 | $30.00 |
| 06-26 07:16 | Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | BUY | 0.5299999983 | $100.00 |
| 06-26 07:15 | AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? | BUY | 0.8707354511 | $200.00 |
| 06-26 07:15 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | BUY | 0.9446419904 | $300.00 |
| 06-26 07:14 | Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? | BUY | 0.0362181054 | $20.00 |
| 06-26 07:14 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.9599999965 | $200.00 |