AnyHow34
0xd24e4f03401ebcb1f65ea1470529754fa71827a9
- Realised P&L
- $-11.26
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 127
- Open portfolio
- $8.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded127
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.775 | $5.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.033 | $0.97 | −$0.19 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.095 | $0.71 | −$4.29 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.029 | $0.62 | −$2.38 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.145 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.027 | $0.33 | −$1.67 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.36 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.045 | $0.18 | −$0.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.10at 0.196Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on April 30?
- +$4.06at 0.330Ethereum all time high before October?
- +$3.76at 0.210US-China trade deal before June?
- +$3.59at 0.730Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$3.17at 0.240Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 17:45 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.039 | $1.17 |
| 08-21 17:43 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? | BUY | 0.625 | $5.00 |
| 08-21 17:37 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7499998875 | $5.00 |
| 08-21 17:35 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | SELL | 0.92 | $2.38 |
| 04-03 22:28 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $1.89 |
| 04-03 22:23 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3709999232 | $2.00 |
| 04-03 22:22 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.36 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 03-02 21:46 | Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? | BUY | 0.7399999124 | $1.69 |
| 03-02 21:44 | Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.135 | $1.00 |
| 03-02 21:41 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | BUY | 0.4559999621 | $5.00 |
| 03-02 21:37 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |
| 03-02 21:35 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899226245 | $3.00 |
| 03-02 21:34 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999625 | $5.00 |
| 03-02 20:43 | Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.8 | $5.33 |
| 03-02 20:42 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.53 | $1.63 |