maxkisel
0xd11a13f0208a1316909b04371ea973e8ffc4ed7d
- Realised P&L
- $193.75
- Volume
- $8.4k
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $183.96
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.695 | $69.50 | +$8.50 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.245 | $37.98 | +$19.38 |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.810 | $30.78 | +$0.38 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.365 | $29.93 | −$9.43 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.028 | $13.93 | −$12.37 |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.030 | $1.85 | −$2.83 |
| Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.97 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.82 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$85.83at 0.610Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$59.27at 0.458Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?
- +$34.42at 0.595Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$29.02at 0.250Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
- +$18.12at 0.632Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 10:07 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.0529774261 | $23.47 |
| 10-01 10:05 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.052 | $2.83 |
| 10-01 10:00 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $39.20 |
| 10-01 09:54 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $61.00 |
| 10-01 09:53 | Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $30.40 |
| 10-01 09:51 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.345 | $3.10 |
| 10-01 09:51 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.331 | $16.55 |
| 10-01 09:46 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $39.36 |
| 10-01 09:28 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.076 | $4.68 |
| 10-01 08:49 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8451979512 | $84.16 |
| 09-28 18:29 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $18.60 |
| 09-27 19:34 | Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.0033654729 | $0.11 |
| 09-27 17:56 | Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.12 |
| 09-25 10:15 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.10T on September 30? | BUY | 0.0378810573 | $3.44 |
| 09-25 10:00 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.10T on September 30? | BUY | 0.017843537 | $4.78 |