Talophex
0xd0db79306c38e8ce1969ce80dde58fa67a67b117
- Realised P&L
- $44.0k
- Volume
- $3.36M
- Markets traded
- 1,503
- Open portfolio
- $164.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,503
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration26.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.9kat 0.000Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?
- +$1.9kat 0.500Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on April 1, 2023?
- +$1.6kat 0.896Will a Democrat win Maine Presidential Election?
- +$1.6kat 0.888Will Joe Biden be inaugurated as President of the USA on January 20th, 2021?
- +$1.5kat 0.000Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on November 30, 2021?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:38 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $182.50 |
| 11-01 18:17 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.966 | $483.00 |
| 11-01 17:24 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.9371111111 | $42.17 |
| 11-01 17:23 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.9366923077 | $60.89 |
| 11-01 17:23 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.9180990295 | $92.71 |
| 10-31 04:22 | Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9614940239 | $9.65 |
| 10-30 03:15 | Panthers vs. Packers | BUY | 0.9769999999 | $40.00 |
| 10-30 02:54 | Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30? | BUY | 0.98 | $980.00 |
| 10-29 17:05 | Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31? | BUY | 0.9876154519 | $79.00 |
| 10-29 17:05 | Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31? | BUY | 0.986 | $19.72 |
| 10-29 17:03 | Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.993 | $397.20 |
| 10-29 15:40 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $481.00 |
| 10-28 19:32 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? | BUY | 0.96985 | $58.19 |
| 10-28 15:20 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.955 | $408.62 |
| 10-27 01:27 | Alibaba announces a training pause by October 31? | BUY | 0.9827620321 | $40.43 |