Talophex
0xd0db79306c38e8ce1969ce80dde58fa67a67b117
- Realised P&L
- $43.1k
- Volume
- $3.21M
- Markets traded
- 1,397
- Open portfolio
- $158.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,397
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.9kat 0.000Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?
- +$1.9kat 0.500Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on April 1, 2023?
- +$1.6kat 0.896Will a Democrat win Maine Presidential Election?
- +$1.6kat 0.888Will Joe Biden be inaugurated as President of the USA on January 20th, 2021?
- +$1.5kat 0.000Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on November 30, 2021?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 17:28 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.979 | $39.16 |
| 09-08 15:35 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $23.00 |
| 09-08 15:34 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9626074561 | $13.17 |
| 09-04 04:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.978 | $48.90 |
| 09-01 18:30 | Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $37.59 |
| 09-01 14:36 | Iran nuclear test before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $110.11 |
| 09-01 14:18 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.988 | $770.64 |
| 08-29 14:41 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $869.53 |
| 08-29 05:39 | Nothing Ever Happens: Obama | BUY | 0.0845 | $8.45 |
| 08-29 05:15 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $98.40 |
| 08-28 21:16 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.981 | $784.90 |
| 08-28 21:15 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $448.92 |
| 08-28 05:01 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | BUY | 0.953 | $246.84 |
| 08-27 18:04 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? | BUY | 0.994 | $4.97 |
| 08-26 19:36 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.983 | $49.15 |