PolyBot

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Traders

Talophex

0xd0db79306c38e8ce1969ce80dde58fa67a67b117

Realised P&L
$44.0k
Volume
$3.36M
Markets traded
1,503
Open portfolio
$164.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded1,503
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration26.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US military draft authorized in 2026? · No0.9340.979$20.2k+$908.47
Iran nuclear test before 2027? · No0.9490.957$9.7k+$79.42
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9340.955$9.6k+$205.57
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? · No0.9280.965$9.2k+$351.26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8440.825$9.1k−$209.27
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.9180.955$7.4k+$288.87
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No0.9210.971$6.6k+$337.16
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? · No0.8810.915$6.4k+$239.12
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · No0.9190.935$5.9k+$99.72
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.9460.966$5.8k+$116.59
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · No0.8930.820$5.2k−$465.34
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9470.967$4.1k+$85.39
New pandemic in 2026? · No0.9460.983$3.9k+$144.48
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9160.955$3.6k+$147.01
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? · No0.9570.974$3.4k+$58.40

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 18:38Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?BUY0.73$182.50
11-01 18:17Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?BUY0.966$483.00
11-01 17:24Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?BUY0.9371111111$42.17
11-01 17:23Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?BUY0.9366923077$60.89
11-01 17:23Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?BUY0.9180990295$92.71
10-31 04:22Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9614940239$9.65
10-30 03:15Panthers vs. PackersBUY0.9769999999$40.00
10-30 02:54Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30?BUY0.98$980.00
10-29 17:05Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?BUY0.9876154519$79.00
10-29 17:05Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?BUY0.986$19.72
10-29 17:03Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?BUY0.993$397.20
10-29 15:40Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY0.962$481.00
10-28 19:32Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?BUY0.96985$58.19
10-28 15:20Trump out as President before 2027?BUY0.955$408.62
10-27 01:27Alibaba announces a training pause by October 31?BUY0.9827620321$40.43