timeCtrl
0xd0658ebf975d303b41be4ca24feaf66e86b1ebb8
- Realised P&L
- $-168.15
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $21.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.49at 0.253Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?
- +$24.08at 0.259Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?
- +$14.34at 0.213Will there be 90 or more tornadoes in the US in October 2026?
- +$12.97at 0.176Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IA-04 House election by 20%-25%?
- +$9.50at 0.310Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 16:49 | Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $61.00 |
| 10-14 16:41 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%? | BUY | 0.246001968 | $24.60 |
| 10-14 16:36 | Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 10-14 16:30 | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.283 | $3.11 |
| 10-14 16:24 | Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.7454859618 | $74.49 |
| 10-14 15:03 | Will David Raya record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.6616939407 | $65.28 |
| 10-14 14:30 | No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? | BUY | 0.3906967913 | $20.24 |
| 10-14 12:02 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IA-04 House election by 20%-25%? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 10-14 12:02 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IA-04 House election by 20%-25%? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 10-14 10:12 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31? | BUY | 0.4029217665 | $19.95 |
| 10-14 10:09 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%? | BUY | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 10-14 07:46 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-22 House election by 5%-10%? | SELL | 0.77 | $15.40 |
| 10-14 07:18 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.25 on November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.80 |
| 10-14 07:15 | Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? | BUY | 0.6790883673 | $11.97 |
| 10-14 06:40 | Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $16.60 |