PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Tsubasa

0xcfde61eb95f05b384c96a021028c90c1d26f4006

Realised P&L
$-61.71
Volume
$239.2k
Markets traded
807
Open portfolio
$1.3k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded807
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration59.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration58.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Discord IPO before 2027? · No0.4530.686$752.16+$255.32
Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch? · No0.6130.870$60.90+$18.00
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6690.538$56.79$13.84
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No0.9200.946$52.95+$1.43
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes0.3780.410$41.00+$3.20
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? · $1400.2570.220$33.66$5.68
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1240.095$31.35$9.55
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? · No0.7500.720$28.80$1.20
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? · No0.7800.800$24.00+$0.60
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1100.128$21.68+$2.94
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1760.207$20.75+$3.15
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1900.045$20.70$66.60
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · No0.6500.405$20.25$12.25
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch? · No0.6200.660$19.80+$1.20
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes0.4730.525$15.75+$1.55

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-14 20:10Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.199$135.96
07-14 18:50Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.372$169.26
07-09 22:22Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.34$34.00
07-09 21:01Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.02840704$14.20
07-07 20:38Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?SELL0.59$17.70
07-06 21:31Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.183$73.20
07-06 21:18Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.181$23.53
07-06 20:55Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?BUY0.9$90.00
07-05 19:55Brazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceBUY0.29$9.84
07-05 19:54Norway to score first vs. Brazil?BUY0.35$10.50
07-05 19:52Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?SELL0.84$19.32
06-28 18:17Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.942$75.36
06-28 18:15Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.209$125.40
06-25 01:57Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?BUY0.37$37.00
06-24 00:20Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.147$58.80