PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

AnonymeD

0xced965ab1cd53c1d05558bbae30fc29446724e81

Realised P&L
$3.96
Volume
$272.41
Markets traded
22
Open portfolio
$68.72

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded22
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration52.9% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample2 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.1150.155$14.83+$3.83
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · No0.8720.944$11.90+$0.90
Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.8660.935$11.87+$0.87
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No0.7800.855$5.48+$0.48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? · No0.9100.962$5.28+$0.28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.6400.665$5.20+$0.20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.8700.585$2.92$1.42
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.2400.140$1.49$1.06
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.1100.135$1.23+$0.23
Will Jean Castex be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.9380.954$1.02+$0.02
Will Valérie Pécresse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.9700.984$1.01+$0.01
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.5800.585$1.01+$0.01
Will Bally Bagayoko be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.9650.970$1.01+$0.01
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.7500.745$0.99$0.01
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.6200.545$0.88$0.12

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-24 15:48Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?BUY0.64$5.00
07-24 15:47Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?BUY0.91$5.00
07-24 15:47Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?BUY0.7799999813$5.00
07-24 15:42Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.8613860704$10.00
07-24 15:39Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.1155290169$10.00
07-24 15:36Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.1099999032$1.00
07-24 15:36Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.3409998124$1.00
07-24 15:34US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?BUY0.3099998295$1.00
07-21 21:22Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL0.988$9.88
07-21 21:20Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.89$4.45
06-21 20:32Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?BUY0.5099998317$1.00
06-21 20:14Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY0.6$6.00
06-21 20:13Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.87$4.35
06-21 19:46Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?BUY0.8719999911$11.00
06-21 19:37Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?BUY0.53$2.65