0xCeA174D48370c028B35D3c1432B4bF79539D0678-1772055546366
0xcea174d48370c028b35d3c1432b4bf79539d0678
- Realised P&L
- $-159.92
- Volume
- $7.7k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $50.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.035 | $23.67 | +$13.67 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.285 | $7.50 | −$2.50 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.165 | $6.87 | −$13.13 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.125 | $6.25 | +$1.25 |
| SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? · Yes | 0.407 | 0.180 | $4.42 | −$5.58 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.065 | $1.30 | −$3.70 |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? · No | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.52at 0.193Will Leavitt say "Hezbollah" or "Hamas" during the next White House Press Briefing?
- +$40.02at 0.150Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
- +$25.71at 0.280Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?
- +$17.74at 0.530Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$11.56at 0.320Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-20 18:12 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 05-20 18:09 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3799999833 | $10.00 |
| 05-19 21:36 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.64 | $10.00 |
| 05-16 21:30 | Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $3.00 |
| 05-16 21:30 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0709999647 | $2.00 |
| 05-16 21:29 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999797 | $3.00 |
| 04-24 14:53 | Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? | BUY | 0.035999983 | $2.00 |
| 04-16 19:27 | Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | BUY | 0.15 | $6.00 |
| 04-11 10:45 | Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.0189999963 | $5.00 |
| 04-03 22:43 | Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | SELL | 0.234 | $4.68 |
| 04-01 19:41 | Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.6499999675 | $5.00 |
| 04-01 19:39 | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.0310000005 | $2.00 |
| 04-01 19:39 | Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.0599999724 | $2.00 |
| 04-01 19:31 | Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 04-01 19:31 | Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | SELL | 0.7549019608 | $15.40 |