0xce5fcb7940135fa07628b26f71a48ed31ff91912
0xce5fcb7940135fa07628b26f71a48ed31ff91912
- Realised P&L
- $-2.2k
- Volume
- $117.6k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $517.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$768.81at 0.696Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?
- +$636.20at 0.798US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
- +$333.41at 0.168Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
- +$284.78at 0.641Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?
- +$203.36at 0.803Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 15:21 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $3.00 |
| 09-21 06:35 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $288.15 |
| 09-21 06:35 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1998572448 | $70.00 |
| 07-19 06:57 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $22.00 |
| 07-19 06:57 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.1470909024 | $71.00 |
| 07-19 06:57 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BUY | 0.0522284713 | $5.00 |
| 07-10 08:08 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.1366668231 | $125.00 |
| 06-26 05:57 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | SELL | 0.0864804379 | $255.06 |
| 06-24 12:38 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0452456617 | $86.23 |
| 06-23 06:32 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | SELL | 0.67 | $248.43 |
| 06-16 04:29 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | BUY | 0.3811453514 | $530.00 |
| 06-16 04:28 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.79 | $530.00 |
| 06-15 12:21 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | BUY | 0.3494114789 | $162.00 |
| 06-15 00:44 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.72 | $428.35 |
| 06-12 16:45 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | BUY | 0.3978472551 | $300.00 |