PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xce5fcb7940135fa07628b26f71a48ed31ff91912

0xce5fcb7940135fa07628b26f71a48ed31ff91912

Realised P&L
$-2.2k
Volume
$117.6k
Markets traded
46
Open portfolio
$517.34

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded46
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration28.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample26 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)53.8%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration61.8% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes0.1800.055$319.55−$727.45
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? · Yes0.1430.086$134.08−$87.91
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2400.036$43.22−$244.93
Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes0.0930.036$20.49−$31.71
Will the next UK election be called by December 31? · Yes0.0710.000$0.00−$148.87
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No0.6670.000$0.00−$750.00
Another US military action against Iran before 2026? · Yes0.1500.000$0.00−$30.00
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? · Yes0.0760.000$0.00−$450.98
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? · Yes0.0620.000$0.00−$37.00
Ukraine election called in 2025? · Yes0.1970.000$0.00−$385.00
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? · Yes0.2210.000$0.00−$670.00
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31? · Yes0.0550.000$0.00−$335.99
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026? · No0.1000.000$0.00−$3.00
Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31? · Yes0.2900.000$0.00−$400.00
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00−$70.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-24 15:21Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?BUY0.1$3.00
09-21 06:35Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?BUY0.24$288.15
09-21 06:35Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?BUY0.1998572448$70.00
07-19 06:57Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?BUY0.11$22.00
07-19 06:57Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?BUY0.1470909024$71.00
07-19 06:57Iran Nuke before 2027?BUY0.0522284713$5.00
07-10 08:08Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?BUY0.1366668231$125.00
06-26 05:57Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?SELL0.0864804379$255.06
06-24 12:38Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?SELL0.0452456617$86.23
06-23 06:32 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?SELL0.67$248.43
06-16 04:29Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?BUY0.3811453514$530.00
06-16 04:28Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL0.79$530.00
06-15 12:21Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?BUY0.3494114789$162.00
06-15 00:44Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL0.72$428.35
06-12 16:45Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?BUY0.3978472551$300.00