googlemenot
0xce25b6b0a95f04ef62b1af0484f41d026e5057de
- Realised P&L
- $-43.52
- Volume
- $24.2k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $50.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration36.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? · Yes | 0.164 | 0.085 | $25.95 | −$24.05 |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.055 | $9.17 | −$15.83 |
| Will Labor win the most seats in the next Victorian state election? · Yes | 0.000 | 0.220 | $9.17 | +$9.17 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.000 | 0.036 | $5.14 | +$5.14 |
| Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.009 | $0.71 | −$0.29 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.009 | $0.30 | −$0.70 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.144 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.61 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.271 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$72.48 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.88at 0.546Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?
- +$31.74at 0.079Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?
- +$15.62at 0.063Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?
- +$12.37at 0.412Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$-1.04at 0.136Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 01:57 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1299999999 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 03:50 | Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0119999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 03:47 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999994 | $40.00 |
| 09-13 09:48 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.003 | $32.25 |
| 09-08 00:12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.005 | $50.00 |
| 09-07 03:18 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 08:13 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 08:12 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 08:12 | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 07:57 | Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0279999733 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 07:53 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.16 | $20.00 |
| 09-05 03:50 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 01:17 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |
| 09-03 01:08 | Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.008 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 11:42 | Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.008 | $1.00 |