PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

googlemenot

0xce25b6b0a95f04ef62b1af0484f41d026e5057de

Realised P&L
$-43.52
Volume
$24.2k
Markets traded
16
Open portfolio
$50.44

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded16
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration36.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample7 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration51.5% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? · Yes0.1640.085$25.95−$24.05
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · Yes0.1500.055$9.17−$15.83
Will Labor win the most seats in the next Victorian state election? · Yes0.0000.220$9.17+$9.17
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.0000.036$5.14+$5.14
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.0120.009$0.71−$0.29
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.0280.009$0.30−$0.70
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? · No0.1440.000$0.00−$33.61
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No0.2710.000$0.00−$72.48
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0170.000$0.00−$7.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 01:57Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.1299999999$10.00
09-14 03:50Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY0.0119999999$1.00
09-14 03:47Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.2099999994$40.00
09-13 09:48Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.003$32.25
09-08 00:12Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.005$50.00
09-07 03:18Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.004$1.00
09-06 08:13Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?BUY0.059999946$1.00
09-06 08:12Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?BUY0.059999946$1.00
09-06 08:12Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?BUY0.1299998986$1.00
09-06 07:57Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY0.0279999733$1.00
09-06 07:53Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?BUY0.16$20.00
09-05 03:50Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.004$2.00
09-03 01:17Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?BUY0.1199999808$5.00
09-03 01:08Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.008$1.00
09-02 11:42Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.008$1.00