User69696969
0xcdbc6babda50a17ea66db4ec58e6bd94d719cb61
- Realised P&L
- $-2.2k
- Volume
- $32.2k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$648.42at 0.560Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$588.31at 0.636Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$379.02at 0.659Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$19.05at 0.420US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$0.57at 0.638Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 19:02 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.84 | $1.03 |
| 07-09 14:05 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.933116485 | $1.9k |
| 07-09 13:32 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL | 0.77 | $1.06 |
| 07-09 13:31 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $1.01 |
| 07-09 13:31 | Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? | SELL | 0.78 | $0.98 |
| 07-09 13:31 | Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31? | SELL | 0.78 | $0.91 |
| 07-09 13:31 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SELL | 0.21 | $0.57 |
| 07-09 13:30 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.232 | $0.51 |
| 07-09 13:29 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.955 | $1.02 |
| 07-09 13:29 | Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | SELL | 0.68 | $1.09 |
| 07-09 13:29 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.73 | $1.12 |
| 07-09 13:29 | Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | SELL | 0.51 | $1.16 |
| 07-09 13:29 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $1.46 |
| 07-09 13:24 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.012 | $41.89 |
| 06-25 23:51 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.25 | $4.44 |