PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xcd9661393d5a92d3b2ff3c3e1d9c26df11759ee4

Realised P&L
not known
Volume
not known
Markets traded
209
Open portfolio
$3.6k

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

Not knownEdge per dollar—
No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
ClearMarkets traded209
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes0.2730.345$549.71+$114.85
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? · No0.6550.645$393.92−$6.08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.1830.875$393.41+$310.91
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? · Yes0.3190.360$316.11+$36.11
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? · Yes0.0910.038$245.59−$334.40
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5660.660$238.98+$33.98
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · No0.7310.685$187.52−$12.48
Kash Patel out by December 31? · Yes0.3340.190$145.84−$110.80
Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? · Yes0.5770.566$142.20−$2.79
2026 Balance of Power: Other · Yes0.0010.001$129.81−$197.48
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? · No0.6200.575$92.74−$7.26
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? · Yes0.2820.235$83.30−$16.70
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2170.130$73.58−$49.42
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · Yes0.2490.125$62.33−$61.66
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.6300.755$59.92+$9.92

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 19:332026 Balance of Power: OtherBUY0.001$76.83
11-01 19:322026 Balance of Power: OtherBUY0.001$50.00
11-01 19:29Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL0.88$131.88
11-01 19:272026 Balance of Power: OtherBUY0.001$1.00
11-01 19:24ECB rate cut in 2026?SELL0.011$1.61
10-30 08:51Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?BUY0.5902785452$45.00
10-30 08:48Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?BUY0.5713954762$100.00
10-29 07:14Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?BUY0.2821139738$100.00
10-29 07:13Iran full airspace closure by December 31?BUY0.3404626206$100.00
10-29 07:11US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?BUY0.0651649754$5.00
10-29 07:10US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?BUY0.0649675162$10.00
10-29 07:10US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?BUY0.08$10.00
10-29 07:10US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?BUY0.1899999998$20.00
10-29 07:10US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?BUY0.4299999991$30.00
10-29 07:09US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?BUY0.5599999955$50.00