bluesky2
0xc96ab1d0569f599f74293f474ce3707f5e7bb834
- Realised P&L
- $-169.20
- Volume
- $13.1k
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $260.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.770 | $77.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.715 | $71.50 | −$7.50 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.595 | $59.50 | −$17.50 |
| ByteDance matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? · No | 0.920 | 0.900 | $36.00 | −$0.80 |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution? · Anthropic | 0.600 | 0.250 | $12.50 | −$17.50 |
| DeepSeek matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.065 | $2.60 | +$0.60 |
| Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.705 | $1.17 | +$0.06 |
| Will Milo Yiannopoulos be deported in 2026? · No | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.99at 0.720Will Katherine LaNasa – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?
- +$5.49at 0.850Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?
- +$4.20at 0.955US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
- +$4.00at 0.730US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?
- +$3.95at 0.800Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 04:01 | Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.146904 | $14.69 |
| 09-11 03:20 | Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $2.37 |
| 09-10 14:10 | Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $4.66 |
| 09-10 14:06 | Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $6.22 |
| 09-10 13:56 | Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $8.30 |
| 09-10 10:13 | Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | SELL | 0.6240725 | $49.93 |
| 09-10 10:11 | Will Zac de Vries win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election? | SELL | 0.3559233333 | $21.36 |
| 09-09 12:19 | LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.36 | $36.00 |
| 09-08 00:22 | Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.33 | $23.10 |
| 09-08 00:22 | Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.46 | $32.20 |
| 09-05 07:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.024 | $1.20 |
| 09-05 07:18 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia? | SELL | 0.0213857143 | $1.50 |
| 09-04 01:59 | Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.118 | $5.38 |
| 08-27 11:14 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | SELL | 0.32 | $22.40 |
| 08-27 04:21 | Will Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election? | SELL | 0.666 | $53.28 |