0xc917afcced87852e9ec009341989eb6c52324df5
- Realised P&L
- $12.30
- Volume
- $92.36
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $21.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar13.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.973 | $4.42 | +$2.42 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.530 | 0.715 | $2.70 | +$0.70 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.825 | $2.43 | +$0.43 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.785 | $2.35 | +$1.19 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.245 | $2.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? · No | 0.650 | 0.650 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.405 | $1.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? · No | 0.740 | 0.695 | $1.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.585 | $1.62 | −$0.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.88at 0.340Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$1.95at 0.350Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.80at 0.410Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.02at 0.660SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 30?
- +$0.91at 0.660Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 05:08 | Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 05:07 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 21:00 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199997408 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 12:53 | Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 04:53 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 20:51 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? | BUY | 0.74 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 12:51 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 04:51 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 20:35 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 11:58 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.659999918 | $1.77 |
| 08-02 03:07 | Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4019999104 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 19:06 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 11:04 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 01:14 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998721 | $1.25 |
| 07-31 17:14 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |