BlakeDiaz1151
0xc89589a0e1d982e61b9705a807b561f4e9f99bfa
- Realised P&L
- $-954.63
- Volume
- $84.6k
- Markets traded
- 233
- Open portfolio
- $52.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded233
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET? · No | 0.430 | 0.996 | $29.86 | +$16.96 |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.045 | $15.57 | −$50.17 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.160 | $3.87 | +$0.00 |
| Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? · No | 0.899 | 1.000 | $1.00 | +$0.10 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.954 | $0.95 | +$0.92 |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.735 | $0.73 | +$0.21 |
| Will Jared Polis announce a Presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.017 | $0.02 | −$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$76.70at 0.170Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 17 be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000?
- +$65.55at 0.770Spread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-3.5)
- +$59.95at 0.600Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?
- +$50.60at 0.190Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $700M and $750M at market close on IPO day?
- +$41.02at 0.730Will Bernie Sanders say "Paycheck to Paycheck" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 08:20 | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $36.92 |
| 04-13 04:28 | Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.93 | $420.36 |
| 04-07 15:11 | Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in April? | BUY | 0.87 | $393.24 |
| 03-31 02:17 | Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.73 | $393.47 |
| 03-29 21:09 | Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.74 | $398.86 |
| 03-26 08:02 | Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $15.50 |
| 03-26 08:01 | Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $7.80 |
| 03-26 08:00 | Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $15.50 |
| 03-21 18:41 | Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31? | SELL | 0.87 | $103.53 |
| 03-11 10:03 | Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars? | SELL | 0.6 | $219.00 |
| 03-06 15:09 | Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars? | BUY | 0.57 | $208.05 |
| 02-26 01:26 | Up Only podcast released by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.982 | $113.91 |
| 02-21 01:54 | Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $108.68 |
| 02-20 06:58 | Will Trump talk to Ali Khamenei in February? | SELL | 0.988 | $16.80 |
| 02-19 22:05 | Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $652.08 |