Alphax
0xc781e8dd03946230f2f32ab36077998bcb4a59d7
- Realised P&L
- $-202.6k
- Volume
- $19.60M
- Markets traded
- 1,479
- Open portfolio
- $18.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,479
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration46.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.2kat 0.720Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$8.2kat 0.842Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
- +$6.9kat 0.769MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
- +$5.7kat 0.811Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?
- +$5.2kat 0.409Another US military action against Iran by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 20:11 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.55 | $5.50 |
| 09-16 17:55 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.86 | $80.72 |
| 09-10 12:39 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.58 | $58.00 |
| 09-09 22:15 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $20.24 |
| 09-07 23:26 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $5.28 |
| 09-07 22:24 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.9k |
| 09-07 14:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $442.98 |
| 09-07 11:42 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.2 | $13.80 |
| 09-07 10:53 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.38 | $221.02 |
| 09-06 23:57 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 09-06 18:10 | Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.89 | $115.70 |
| 09-06 18:03 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.8 | $312.10 |
| 09-03 10:22 | Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.36 | $3.60 |
| 09-02 12:47 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.57 | $1.3k |
| 09-01 19:51 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.58 | $11.60 |