0xc6cba81c4ae72ee220f008e4b097aa1f1453bbf0
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 280
- Open portfolio
- $7.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded280
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.816 | $3.6k | +$1.4k |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.934 | 0.981 | $2.0k | +$93.00 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.830 | 0.945 | $945.00 | +$115.00 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.184 | $809.62 | −$1.4k |
| Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.976 | $195.10 | +$45.10 |
| Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.001 | $0.98 | −$29.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.916Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$2.8kat 0.034Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
- +$1.9kat 0.728US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.8kat 0.925Maduro out in 2025?
- +$1.8kat 0.964Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 02:48 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.82 | $17.07 |
| 08-21 08:06 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.88 | $4.1k |
| 08-21 07:32 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $3.5k |
| 08-21 07:31 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | SELL | 0.982 | $3.6k |
| 08-21 05:04 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.94 | $2.4k |
| 07-27 20:19 | Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.81 | $169.11 |
| 07-23 17:52 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.973 | $3.2k |
| 07-07 07:55 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $384.00 |
| 07-03 19:03 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.8200674511 | $1.2k |
| 07-03 05:50 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? | BUY | 0.993 | $269.73 |
| 07-01 05:56 | Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | SELL | 0.956 | $26.59 |
| 06-27 09:13 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $2.5k |
| 06-27 09:08 | Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | BUY | 0.904 | $25.14 |
| 06-27 08:52 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.83 | $3.2k |
| 06-27 08:50 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $150.29 |