garbagefriends
0xc5bdf06de8ac9e1a904408d101c0cdc86571ceaa
- Realised P&L
- $-654.08
- Volume
- $2.54M
- Markets traded
- 1,638
- Open portfolio
- $8.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,638
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.4kat 0.010Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.825US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.972US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$976.17at 0.093Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
- +$877.55at 0.940Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:09 | Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30? | BUY | 0.9702432432 | $53.85 |
| 11-01 18:09 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $30.38 |
| 11-01 18:09 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $11.20 |
| 11-01 16:11 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $21.00 |
| 11-01 14:06 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $29.36 |
| 11-01 12:05 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.26 | $5.20 |
| 11-01 11:17 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $6.07 |
| 11-01 10:28 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $60.83 |
| 11-01 10:18 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | SELL | 0.0129377412 | $3.32 |
| 11-01 06:24 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $11.10 |
| 11-01 06:24 | Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | BUY | 0.83 | $55.57 |
| 11-01 06:24 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? | BUY | 0.1073198 | $5.37 |
| 11-01 06:24 | Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $133.31 |
| 11-01 06:24 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.28 | $5.57 |
| 11-01 01:34 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | SELL | 0.024 | $1.10 |