PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

garbagefriends

0xc5bdf06de8ac9e1a904408d101c0cdc86571ceaa

Realised P&L
$-654.08
Volume
$2.54M
Markets traded
1,638
Open portfolio
$8.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,638
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration6.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026? · No0.9800.981$373.30+$0.42
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.6800.705$352.49+$12.50
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · Yes0.5180.525$272.36+$3.79
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? · Yes0.8400.805$262.56−$11.34
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.9620.972$215.87+$2.11
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? · No0.9580.967$193.28+$1.67
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · No0.9770.986$183.81+$1.51
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.6070.645$168.60+$9.84
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.9730.977$163.30+$0.58
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.9790.984$157.50+$0.87
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8290.825$143.40−$0.73
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yes0.3660.360$141.76−$2.49
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? · No0.9200.915$132.58−$0.72
Israeli Knesset election annulled? · No0.9750.965$129.06−$1.34
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? · No0.7400.695$114.26−$7.40

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 18:09Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30?BUY0.9702432432$53.85
11-01 18:09Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?BUY0.7$30.38
11-01 18:09Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?BUY0.7$11.20
11-01 16:11US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?BUY0.14$21.00
11-01 14:06US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?BUY0.16$29.36
11-01 12:05US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?BUY0.26$5.20
11-01 11:17Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.12$6.07
11-01 10:28Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?BUY0.24$60.83
11-01 10:18U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?SELL0.0129377412$3.32
11-01 06:24Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?SELL0.999$11.10
11-01 06:24Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?BUY0.83$55.57
11-01 06:24Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?BUY0.1073198$5.37
11-01 06:24Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?BUY0.92$133.31
11-01 06:24US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?BUY0.28$5.57
11-01 01:34U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?SELL0.024$1.10