dumb-trader67
0xc4843becbc3252a6a83a698e106f29aa79164cd5
- Realised P&L
- $-170.98
- Volume
- $1.54M
- Markets traded
- 152
- Open portfolio
- $7.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded152
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.7kat 0.042Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in November?
- +$8.0kat 0.198Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$7.0kat 0.168Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?
- +$5.3kat 0.433Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?
- +$4.7kat 0.291Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 21:45 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.924 | $256.66 |
| 07-14 21:23 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $298.20 |
| 07-07 12:16 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6699999993 | $200.00 |
| 07-07 12:15 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0029999997 | $10.00 |
| 07-07 12:15 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.01 | $20.00 |
| 07-07 12:15 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0279999991 | $30.00 |
| 07-07 12:11 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.055999999 | $50.00 |
| 07-07 12:06 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1799999976 | $50.00 |
| 06-16 10:20 | Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.7239276 | $723.93 |
| 06-16 10:20 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $12.20 |
| 06-16 10:18 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.979 | $9.79 |
| 06-16 10:18 | Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.8 | $7.99 |
| 06-05 08:32 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? | BUY | 0.0847894737 | $32.22 |
| 06-05 08:31 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? | BUY | 0.153 | $45.90 |
| 05-26 09:35 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.099 | $99.00 |