PolyBot

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Traders

PadreMaronno

0xc468b3b8564017fcf2bf9ede2608a0ea24b1009d

Realised P&L
$14.2k
Volume
$548.5k
Markets traded
4,429
Open portfolio
$3.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded4,429
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration11.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.7900.948$379.20+$63.20
Will Lebanon join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.9170.984$236.16+$16.16
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? · No0.8500.946$138.75+$14.08
Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026? · No0.7810.954$121.84+$22.06
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? · No0.8280.960$119.56+$16.42
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7940.989$98.90+$19.52
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7640.989$98.84+$22.41
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7300.985$98.51+$25.50
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.6810.985$98.50+$30.42
Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027? · No0.1100.485$97.00+$75.00
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? · No0.9390.960$95.95+$2.05
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · No0.8500.945$94.50+$9.50
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? · No0.7600.935$93.50+$17.50
Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026? · No0.4740.945$92.48+$46.10
Will Oman join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.9200.915$91.50$0.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-13 19:45Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" this week?BUY0.938$46.90
09-04 16:09Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?BUY0.5$2.50
09-04 16:09Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?BUY0.5$2.50
09-04 16:07Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?BUY0.48$3.78
09-04 16:07Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?BUY0.47$18.80
08-25 10:45Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?BUY0.5$2.50
08-25 10:45Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?BUY0.5$10.00
08-25 08:37Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?BUY0.19$20.33
08-24 18:24Will Trump say "College" during Rose Garden event?BUY0.16$8.00
08-24 14:01Will Bessent say "Network" during press conference?BUY0.1$0.50
08-23 15:58Will Tropical Storm Saudel peak as a "Very Strong Typhoon"?BUY0.86$8.60
08-23 15:58Will Tropical Storm Saudel peak as a "Violent Typhoon"?BUY0.12$1.20
08-23 15:14Will Tropical Storm Saudel peak as a "Very Strong Typhoon"?BUY0.81$14.62
08-23 15:13Will Tropical Storm Saudel peak as a "Very Strong Typhoon"?BUY0.8$16.00
08-23 15:13Will Tropical Storm Saudel peak as a "Very Strong Typhoon"?BUY0.79$15.80