PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

PadreMaronno

0xc468b3b8564017fcf2bf9ede2608a0ea24b1009d

Realised P&L
$13.7k
Volume
$546.5k
Markets traded
4,490
Open portfolio
$3.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded4,490
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration10.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration10.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.7900.964$385.40+$69.40
Will Aleksandar Vučić become Serbian PM and Andrey Gyurov win Bulgaria? · No0.9100.997$321.37+$28.04
Will Lebanon join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.9170.851$204.24−$15.76
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? · No0.8500.968$141.90+$17.23
Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026? · No0.7810.970$123.88+$24.10
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? · No0.8280.971$120.87+$17.73
Will Todd Blanche be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027? · No0.9100.995$99.50+$8.50
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7940.993$99.25+$19.87
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7640.992$99.14+$22.71
Will Oman join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.9200.990$98.95+$6.95
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7300.989$98.86+$25.85
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.6810.987$98.65+$30.57
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? · No0.9390.977$97.70+$3.80
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · No0.8500.960$96.00+$11.00
Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026? · No0.4740.970$94.92+$48.55

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-25 21:27Will Vance peak at Category 3?BUY0.93$177.62
10-24 22:35Will Trump say "Border" 22+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?BUY0.54$16.20
10-24 14:14Will Vance peak at Category 2?BUY0.58$52.20
10-17 21:02Will Clarence Thomas be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?BUY0.87$87.00
10-12 15:19Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by October 31?BUY0.0473218875$8.54
10-11 11:03Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?SELL0.26$0.70
10-10 21:23Will Simon peak at Category 4?BUY0.71$21.29
10-10 21:23Will Simon peak at Category 4?BUY0.71$49.70
10-09 22:58Will Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by October 31?SELL0.69$41.39
10-09 21:57Will Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by October 16?BUY0.79$80.73
10-09 18:03Will Choi-wan peak as a Very strong typhoon?BUY0.983$146.63
10-04 13:00Will Choi-wan peak as a Violent typhoon?BUY0.24$19.20
10-01 23:16Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 11, 2026?BUY0.18$7.22
10-01 21:55Will Trump say "Ford" during his remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company?BUY0.52$10.40
09-30 20:57Will Trump say "Ice Cream" in October?BUY0.26$7.80