PadreMaronno
0xc468b3b8564017fcf2bf9ede2608a0ea24b1009d
- Realised P&L
- $13.7k
- Volume
- $546.5k
- Markets traded
- 4,490
- Open portfolio
- $3.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded4,490
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration10.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$258.67at 0.435Will Juventus finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?
- +$208.76at 0.127Will Trump say "Unbelievable" or "Fantastic" or "Incredible" 10+ times during Panthers visit?
- +$205.56at 0.232Will Leavitt say "President" 69+ times during the next White House press briefing?
- +$186.67at 0.050Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during WEF Address on January 21?
- +$186.61at 0.290Will Sal Da Vinci win Sanremo 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 21:27 | Will Vance peak at Category 3? | BUY | 0.93 | $177.62 |
| 10-24 22:35 | Will Trump say "Border" 22+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | BUY | 0.54 | $16.20 |
| 10-24 14:14 | Will Vance peak at Category 2? | BUY | 0.58 | $52.20 |
| 10-17 21:02 | Will Clarence Thomas be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $87.00 |
| 10-12 15:19 | Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by October 31? | BUY | 0.0473218875 | $8.54 |
| 10-11 11:03 | Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship? | SELL | 0.26 | $0.70 |
| 10-10 21:23 | Will Simon peak at Category 4? | BUY | 0.71 | $21.29 |
| 10-10 21:23 | Will Simon peak at Category 4? | BUY | 0.71 | $49.70 |
| 10-09 22:58 | Will Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by October 31? | SELL | 0.69 | $41.39 |
| 10-09 21:57 | Will Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by October 16? | BUY | 0.79 | $80.73 |
| 10-09 18:03 | Will Choi-wan peak as a Very strong typhoon? | BUY | 0.983 | $146.63 |
| 10-04 13:00 | Will Choi-wan peak as a Violent typhoon? | BUY | 0.24 | $19.20 |
| 10-01 23:16 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $7.22 |
| 10-01 21:55 | Will Trump say "Ford" during his remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company? | BUY | 0.52 | $10.40 |
| 09-30 20:57 | Will Trump say "Ice Cream" in October? | BUY | 0.26 | $7.80 |