Gumpbaby
0xc3ca883f3b752c2eeb2de06a0fdaafc632c3ca7c
- Realised P&L
- $30.25
- Volume
- $26.5k
- Markets traded
- 103
- Open portfolio
- $233.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded103
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.029 | $115.28 | −$5.86 |
| Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.746 | 0.967 | $72.53 | +$16.58 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.021 | $41.00 | −$16.62 |
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.680 | $4.53 | +$3.26 |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.60 |
| Men's Group C - Latvia vs. USA · Latvia | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.40 |
| Will the 2026 Big Game be the most viewed Big Game ever? · Yes | 0.549 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$43.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$214.41at 0.180Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
- +$68.19at 0.020Spread: Falcons (-2.5)
- +$65.06at 0.390Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?
- +$50.05at 0.738Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?
- +$33.90at 0.677Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 04:27 | Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.0309999998 | $121.14 |
| 03-10 06:45 | Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $150.00 |
| 03-04 22:01 | Discord IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.181 | $15.44 |
| 03-01 04:35 | Discord IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.126 | $63.61 |
| 02-28 22:39 | Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1? | SELL | 0.009 | $0.18 |
| 02-28 22:39 | Will Khamenei tweet again by March 2? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.04 |
| 02-28 20:24 | Will Khamenei tweet again by March 3? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 02-10 21:15 | Will the 2026 Big Game be the most viewed Big Game ever? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.91 |
| 02-09 18:30 | Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | SELL | 0.998 | $37.34 |
| 02-08 23:19 | Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | SELL | 0.46 | $9.20 |
| 02-08 22:30 | Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5 | BUY | 0.53 | $5.30 |
| 02-08 20:24 | Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | BUY | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 12-30 18:45 | Will $DJT's market cap be less than 3.5b | BUY | 0.21 | $4.20 |
| 12-11 03:14 | Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? | BUY | 0.6 | $6.00 |
| 12-11 03:11 | Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | BUY | 0.27 | $10.26 |