KimberlyLawrence8193
0xc3629c93ade971524ceb7bd192a8774a43a57f4f
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $183.4k
- Markets traded
- 325
- Open portfolio
- $301.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded325
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic | 0.600 | 0.938 | $241.07 | +$86.87 |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win more than 84.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? · O 84.5 | 0.160 | 0.066 | $58.43 | −$84.29 |
| Discord IPO before 2027? · No | 0.095 | 0.894 | $0.89 | +$0.80 |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.548 | $0.55 | +$0.51 |
| Makina FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.087 | $0.09 | −$0.08 |
| Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.18 |
| Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$585.26at 0.115Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?
- +$307.84at 0.150Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-01-04?
- +$248.00at 0.160Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%?
- +$246.56at 0.240Will "Sinners" win Best Original Score at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
- +$191.40at 0.350Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-29 13:47 | Will UConn advance to the Final Four? | BUY | 0.67 | $103.18 |
| 03-25 18:22 | Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Tottenham? | SELL | 0.86 | $103.20 |
| 03-24 05:00 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | SELL | 0.65 | $139.75 |
| 03-23 21:43 | Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Tottenham? | BUY | 0.89 | $106.80 |
| 03-23 19:18 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | BUY | 0.72 | $154.80 |
| 03-21 20:00 | Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.86 | $295.84 |
| 03-20 18:02 | Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.87 | $299.28 |
| 03-19 03:16 | Will Trump post "Stupid" on Truth Social this week? | SELL | 0.2 | $57.40 |
| 03-19 03:15 | Will Trump post "Stupid" on Truth Social this week? | SELL | 0.2 | $119.60 |
| 03-19 03:14 | Will Trump post "Stupid" on Truth Social this week? | SELL | 0.2 | $122.00 |
| 03-18 14:29 | Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $5.85 |
| 03-17 17:18 | Will Trump post "Stupid" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.66 | $986.70 |
| 03-11 03:54 | Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars? | SELL | 0.37 | $154.29 |
| 03-10 15:00 | Will "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars? | SELL | 0.1 | $26.40 |
| 03-10 11:03 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.76 | $290.32 |