DawnOfYemen
0xc34a4af2e3a818fdcdfaa7b5b140eca017ae6007
- Realised P&L
- $31.4k
- Volume
- $2.28M
- Markets traded
- 1,588
- Open portfolio
- $11.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,588
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration15.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.634US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$1.5kat 0.523Israel military action against Iran before July?
- +$1.3kat 0.839Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January?
- +$1.1kat 0.771US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$814.98at 0.634Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:37 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.65 | $32.50 |
| 11-01 22:36 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.64 | $66.87 |
| 11-01 22:34 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | SELL | 0.67 | $100.50 |
| 11-01 21:10 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.143 | $14.30 |
| 11-01 21:09 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.14 | $84.04 |
| 11-01 21:08 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.139 | $59.87 |
| 11-01 21:07 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.139 | $139.00 |
| 11-01 21:07 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.139 | $139.00 |
| 10-31 11:15 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | BUY | 0.962 | $54.83 |
| 10-31 11:03 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.5299999989 | $208.00 |
| 10-31 11:03 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? | SELL | 0.9604775672 | $240.20 |
| 10-31 11:01 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.62 | $248.25 |
| 10-30 22:13 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.971 | $242.75 |
| 10-30 22:01 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $46.00 |
| 10-30 22:00 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $138.00 |