0xc25501b0bdc05359fe4598e528860a911b7470d2
- Realised P&L
- $-3.75
- Volume
- $105.10
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $12.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.430 | 1.000 | $4.65 | +$2.65 |
| Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.365 | $2.81 | +$0.81 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.795 | $2.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.330 | $1.83 | −$0.17 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.125 | $1.04 | −$0.96 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.680 | 0.145 | $0.44 | −$1.63 |
| Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? · No | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · No | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.83at 0.390Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.77at 0.410Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.53at 0.570Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?
- +$1.34at 0.560Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
- +$0.92at 0.670Will Boeing say "Tariff" during earnings call?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 13:15 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 05:15 | Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 21:14 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.4899999534 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 13:13 | Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 05:11 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 21:10 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 13:09 | Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 05:09 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 08:00 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.17 |
| 07-31 11:57 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 01:40 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-30 14:55 | Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.41 | $1.23 |
| 07-29 20:20 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 07:21 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-27 19:48 | Will Boeing say "Tariff" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.6699999498 | $1.87 |