0xc22FAd18112788d4b77205B2133AB653C7DeC7FC-1759689437132
0xc22fad18112788d4b77205b2133ab653c7dec7fc
- Realised P&L
- $95.73
- Volume
- $777.32
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $124.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar12.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 1.000 | $100.00 | +$95.00 |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.690 | 1.000 | $10.00 | +$3.10 |
| Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.445 | $8.90 | +$3.70 |
| Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.095 | $2.85 | −$3.75 |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.155 | $1.55 | −$4.95 |
| Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.036 | $1.09 | −$3.71 |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.20 |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? · No | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.04at 0.612Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?
- +$9.99at 0.730Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
- +$3.74at 0.820Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$3.40at 0.620Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?
- +$3.10at 0.810Another US military action against Iran before 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-29 00:52 | Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.62 | $7.44 |
| 01-29 00:30 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | SELL | 0.34 | $4.08 |
| 01-29 00:27 | Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | SELL | 0.96 | $9.60 |
| 12-05 21:09 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.15 |
| 12-05 21:09 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | SELL | 0.037 | $0.82 |
| 12-05 21:09 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | SELL | 0.121 | $1.73 |
| 12-05 21:08 | Another US military action against Iran before 2026? | SELL | 0.9776585629 | $18.10 |
| 10-06 22:40 | Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.73 | $27.00 |
| 10-06 22:39 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.0530000015 | $2.00 |
| 10-06 22:39 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.0899999599 | $2.00 |
| 10-06 22:39 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.1399999426 | $2.00 |
| 10-06 22:07 | Another US military action against Iran before 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999919 | $15.00 |
| 10-05 19:16 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.00 |
| 10-05 19:15 | Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? | BUY | 0.7599999954 | $20.00 |
| 09-30 02:54 | Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? | BUY | 0.4399999894 | $10.00 |