0xC1d03D0fEdD3bA412E12079E1391D87624CE4afc-1770329461329
0xc1d03d0fedd3ba412e12079e1391d87624ce4afc
- Realised P&L
- $125.43
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $34.12
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.325 | $21.67 | +$11.67 |
| US recession by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.095 | $9.50 | −$13.50 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.007 | $2.95 | −$12.05 |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Meeting? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.343 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.74 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| France vs. England: Team to Win · France | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$129.04at 0.069Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$78.30at 0.142Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
- +$2.50at 0.300Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy
- +$2.28at 0.740France vs. England: Team to Win
- +$-5.00at 0.080Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 17:40 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0773021548 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 17:38 | World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 17:36 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.078999993 | $10.00 |
| 07-18 21:42 | France vs. England: Team to Win | SELL | 0.91 | $12.46 |
| 07-18 21:29 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.2899999846 | $10.00 |
| 07-18 21:28 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.7299999876 | $10.00 |
| 04-15 06:04 | Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $17.00 |
| 04-09 14:06 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.0381304703 | $15.00 |
| 04-07 21:50 | Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.1584158416 | $9.16 |
| 04-03 21:19 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Meeting? | BUY | 0.0754716981 | $10.00 |
| 04-03 21:18 | Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $29.00 |
| 03-01 14:37 | Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8832464262 | $93.30 |
| 02-17 20:34 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1499999887 | $10.00 |
| 02-06 23:48 | Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy | BUY | 0.29999997 | $5.00 |
| 02-06 23:42 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.12 | $6.00 |