Polba
0xbf7f70dc9ce2324b8d33d266605bd769e6190cad
- Realised P&L
- $-84.97
- Volume
- $5.9k
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $366.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$54.18at 0.534MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
- +$42.47at 0.268Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?
- +$33.73at 0.525Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
- +$18.01at 0.762Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?
- +$7.05at 0.530Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-08 13:04 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? | SELL | 0.99 | $28.95 |
| 12-07 22:15 | GPT ads by December 31? | BUY | 0.9519998803 | $7.00 |
| 12-07 14:49 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? | BUY | 0.74 | $18.50 |
| 12-07 14:42 | Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? | BUY | 0.53 | $7.95 |
| 12-07 00:09 | Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? | BUY | 0.0305119253 | $5.00 |
| 12-07 00:08 | Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | BUY | 0.9709999981 | $2.00 |
| 12-06 16:25 | Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6? | BUY | 0.275862069 | $10.00 |
| 12-06 16:24 | Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6? | BUY | 0.2599999839 | $10.00 |
| 12-06 15:24 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.3299999978 | $60.00 |
| 12-06 15:21 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.3299999886 | $15.00 |
| 12-06 15:13 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.8699999678 | $10.00 |
| 12-06 02:28 | Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 12-06 02:28 | Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 12-06 02:27 | GPT ads by December 31? | BUY | 0.8959998495 | $2.00 |
| 12-06 02:27 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |