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Traders

Polba

0xbf7f70dc9ce2324b8d33d266605bd769e6190cad

Realised P&L
$-84.97
Volume
$5.9k
Markets traded
66
Open portfolio
$366.86

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded66
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample19 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)94.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration62.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US government shutdown Saturday? · Yes0.3301.000$227.27+$152.27
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · No0.8700.814$28.07$1.93
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0700.034$16.75$18.25
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? · Yes0.1700.101$10.71$7.39
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No0.6200.935$10.56+$3.56
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No0.9501.000$10.53+$0.53
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No0.9501.000$10.53+$0.53
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? · Yes0.6401.000$7.81+$2.81
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes0.1200.029$5.70$18.30
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.3600.160$5.32$6.68
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? · Yes0.6101.000$5.00+$1.95
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? · Yes0.2300.105$4.57$5.43
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.3000.221$3.67$1.32
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · No0.8300.955$3.45+$0.45
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.1600.055$3.44$6.56

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
12-08 13:04MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?SELL0.99$28.95
12-07 22:15GPT ads by December 31?BUY0.9519998803$7.00
12-07 14:49MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?BUY0.74$18.50
12-07 14:42Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?BUY0.53$7.95
12-07 00:09Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?BUY0.0305119253$5.00
12-07 00:08Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?BUY0.9709999981$2.00
12-06 16:25Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?BUY0.275862069$10.00
12-06 16:24Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?BUY0.2599999839$10.00
12-06 15:24US government shutdown Saturday?BUY0.3299999978$60.00
12-06 15:21US government shutdown Saturday?BUY0.3299999886$15.00
12-06 15:13Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY0.8699999678$10.00
12-06 02:28Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?BUY0.5499999725$2.00
12-06 02:28Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?BUY0.4299999505$2.00
12-06 02:27GPT ads by December 31?BUY0.8959998495$2.00
12-06 02:27Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.77$1.00
Trader Polba · PolyBot Pro