Ethereal008
0xbf46dcd9b48eb65b8dd127da579ac80515ff7ecf
- Realised P&L
- $19.30
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $426.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.905 | $105.17 | +$0.58 |
| Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? · No | 0.889 | 0.960 | $99.56 | +$7.28 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.925 | $92.50 | +$7.50 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.895 | $59.15 | −$0.33 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · No | 0.956 | 0.980 | $48.13 | +$1.15 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.988 | $21.93 | +$1.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.23at 0.935Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$6.22at 0.969Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
- +$4.45at 0.849Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13?
- +$2.17at 0.881Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
- +$1.85at 0.940Iran successfully targets shipping by August 9, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 00:32 | Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? | BUY | 0.9608873581 | $29.00 |
| 09-25 00:30 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $59.48 |
| 09-25 00:28 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $104.59 |
| 09-21 20:10 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.36 | $11.29 |
| 08-09 02:31 | Iran successfully targets shipping by August 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999877 | $29.03 |
| 07-26 13:37 | Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.999 | $78.62 |
| 07-01 15:15 | Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.991 | $78.00 |
| 06-14 15:23 | Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $49.49 |
| 06-14 03:18 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.9745640445 | $30.00 |
| 06-13 15:06 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999665 | $21.00 |
| 06-10 01:59 | Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.9299999961 | $50.03 |
| 05-16 01:03 | Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9694464214 | $49.56 |
| 05-16 01:01 | Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999886 | $63.28 |
| 05-12 23:04 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $163.07 |
| 05-12 22:59 | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.999 | $162.97 |