AnonymousElephant69
0xbeb9d19f10274da29f21625a2c91fa5a00fd3870
- Realised P&L
- $-8.6k
- Volume
- $924.7k
- Markets traded
- 223
- Open portfolio
- $8.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded223
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.540 | 0.410 | $8.2k | −$2.6k |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? · Yes | 0.384 | 0.350 | $126.00 | −$12.08 |
| Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.030 | $78.30 | +$52.20 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.445 | $6.43 | +$1.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.1kat 0.174Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
- +$3.5kat 0.360Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.700Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
- +$2.6kat 0.396Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 million?
- +$1.8kat 0.402OpenAI browser by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 13:14 | Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.007694751 | $43.73 |
| 07-18 08:21 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.3982131426 | $74.90 |
| 07-18 08:18 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.392 | $2.25 |
| 07-18 08:17 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.393 | $19.65 |
| 07-18 08:16 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.389 | $19.45 |
| 07-18 08:16 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.3839471491 | $40.54 |
| 07-18 08:02 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.3776666667 | $28.33 |
| 07-18 07:59 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.3985367908 | $8.99 |
| 07-18 07:59 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.399 | $2.09 |
| 07-17 07:45 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.399 | $11.62 |
| 07-17 07:33 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.399 | $11.97 |
| 07-17 05:56 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $19.11 |
| 07-17 05:52 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.399 | $6.06 |
| 07-17 05:40 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.399 | $11.50 |
| 07-17 05:38 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.399 | $3.58 |